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For three months, as Israel has waged its thunderous offensive against Hamas in Gaza, fears have lingered that the war could trigger a full-blown regional conflagration. In some ways, the conflict spilled across borders from the outset. Iranian-backed militants in Iraq have launched more than 100 attacks against US forces in the region. Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen have conducted more than two dozen assaults on merchant ships in the Red Sea. And the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah, Iran’s most important ally in the region, has traded daily fire with Israeli forces.
Until last week, the clashes had been contained within each theatre, and largely within unofficial red lines. That may be changing, raising the risks to worrying new levels. Last Tuesday a drone strike in Beirut killed a senior Hamas official, Saleh al-Arouri, and six other members of the Islamist group. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied being behind the attack, but it has made no secret of its aim to kill Hamas leaders wherever they may be after the militants’ horrific October 7 assault killed at least 1,200 people. But the strike took place in southern Beirut, a Hizbollah stronghold, and was seen as a provocation to which the Lebanese group has vowed to respond.
Two days later, the US killed an Iraqi commander of an Iranian-backed militia in a strike in Baghdad in what Washington said was a response to assaults on American troops. The US has launched several strikes against Iraqi militants since October 7 but this was the first time it had targeted a senior commander and the Iraqi capital.
In between, two suicide bombers killed more than 80 Iranians at a ceremony to mark the anniversary of the US assassination of Revolutionary Guards commander Qassem Soleimani. Isis claimed responsibility, suggesting that Sunni militants may be starting to take advantage of the unrest in the region.
Elsewhere, the US and 11 allies warned Houthi rebels they would face consequences if they failed to stop disruption of global maritime trade. The Houthis soon defied the warnings, detonating an unmanned vessel in the Red Sea, though they did not damage ships.
The proliferation of attacks by a growing number of players has sharply raised tensions. Restraint is required on all sides. The US had been using warnings and deterrence to prevent a broader conflict, and stopped Israel from launching a pre-emptive strike against Hizbollah in the days after October 7. Iran, meanwhile, has flexed its muscles through proxies to show it is not ignoring Israel’s assault in Gaza, but has also signalled to Washington that it would not expand its involvement.
The US, however, now finds itself increasingly drawn in, its forces under attack in Iraq and its support for Israel wrecking its reputation across an Arab world enraged by the devastation of Gaza. Israel’s war in Gaza has already caused catastrophic destruction, killing more than 22,500 people, according to Palestinian officials, and raising the spectre of famine in the besieged strip.
Washington should multiply efforts to de-escalate tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese border, the front most vulnerable to igniting a full-blown conflict. US officials have been trying to secure a deal between Hizbollah and Israel to properly implement a UN Security Council resolution reached following the 2006 war between the two. Its implementation would lead to Hizbollah pulling back its forces from the border, and Israel halting air incursions into Lebanon and resolving longstanding disagreements over disputed territory.
A diplomatic solution is far from guaranteed, but is worth the effort. Yet the harsh reality is that the risks of a broader war will not diminish as long as Israel is bombing and besieging Gaza.
Letter in response to this article:
2007 interview sheds light on Hamas’s real intentions / From Elliot Renton, London N3, UK