Messing with the nation’s Full English breakfast is tantamount to blasphemy. But that may be on the table. The pig farmers’ trade body warns that empty shelves beckon if the UK’s biggest supermarket fails to raise bacon prices.

A flashpoint throughout the pandemic, pig farming ails from similar woes to makers of cars and semiconductors: staff shortages, snagged supply chains and now inflation. The difference is you cannot cut off production by flicking a switch. More than 60,000 pigs have been culled in Britain since last year as a result of staff shortages at abattoirs. Making matters worse, the war in Ukraine means feed prices make up 70 per cent of input costs.

This week’s open letter from the National Pig Association was addressed to Tesco, one of just a few unsupportive retailers the association says. Prices for pig meat have risen sharply from a six-year low at the beginning of the year, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board. But they remain below farmers’ production costs. The spectre of bankruptcies looms across the sector.

Lex calculations suggest there is room to jack up bacon prices and still leave a Full English (or Scottish or Irish) below 2013 levels. Using retail price indices shows an English breakfast was only 6 per cent more expensive in March versus a year ago and 5 per cent below the food price spike of late 2013.

Tesco is naturally reluctant to risk jeopardising market share by hiking prices aggressively. It says some costs have already been passed on to consumers through its contracts with suppliers like Cranswick. The supplier’s next quarterly adjustments will probably increase sharply.

Though not good news for Tesco, or diners and of limited comfort to farmers, it insulates excellently Cranswick’s profit margins. These have remained remarkably steady over the past two decades. Its vertically integrated model has proved a boon. More farming busts would only boost these. Cranswick’s shares measured on forward earnings multiples sit at seven-year lows. Being pig in the middle can sometimes be the sweet spot.

T