Good morning. Interest rates are going up, the Bank of England has revised its inflation forecasts and NHS waiting lists are at a record high. This is the boring-but-important political story: for all Rishi Sunak is an undoubted asset to the Conservative party, for all he has turned chaos into order, disarray into competence and personal scandal into endearing uxoriousness, the government faces any number of overlapping crises.
Some more thoughts on all that below.
The five-pledge snag
Rishi Sunak’s re-election strategy is obvious: to point to his five pledges, argue that he has delivered on them, then point to a new set of pledges for after the election. He’ll argue that he can be trusted to keep his promises because he has already delivered on “the people’s priorities”. And he’ll seek to contrast that with Keir Starmer, who has had to duck and weave his way as he has sought to change Labour near-completely from the Corbyn years.
Those five pledges, in case you’ve forgotten:
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Halve inflation this year
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Expand the economy, creating better-paid jobs and opportunity right across the country
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Reduce the national debt
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Cut NHS waiting lists
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Stop the boats
This strategy is great, on paper. But in practice it is hitting the not-inconsiderable snag that none of the pledges are in great shape. More than 3,000 people have arrived in the UK via small boat since March 7. As for inflation, well, Chris Giles has the details on that:
The central bank now expects inflation to fall from the current 10.1 per cent rate to 5.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of the year, instead of its previous forecast of 3.9 per cent. Any further deterioration in the inflation outlook would leave UK prime minister Rishi Sunak missing his pledge to halve inflation by the end of the year.
The Bank of England’s forecasts have consistently underestimated the persistence of inflation since the end of the lockdown era, and it seems to me a good bet that this will continue.
And the latest figures from the NHS are similarly bleak: waiting times in England have hit a record high. Sarah Neville has the story, while the Institute for Government has the alarming chart.
Part of the issue is that once your healthcare system is in crisis, things tend to get worse before they get better. There is a huge amount of demand in the UK for medical services and a shortage of doctors, nurses and almost everything you care to name.
Taken together, Sunak is unlikely to be able to say he has met his five pledges. Whatever one thinks of Sunak’s abilities, Starmer’s abilities, the experience and talent of the two parties, the most important thing in British politics is the series of overlapping crises in the public services, the economic difficulties facing the UK and the pressure on households. None of these look likely to have eased in a meaningful way in time for the next election.
Now try this
I’m off to see Chineke! Orchestra at the Southbank Centre tonight. It is largely new music and some Samuel Coleridge-Taylor. I’m very much looking forward to it. You can stream Coleridge-Taylor’s 4 Novelletten for string orchestra from wherever you get your music.
However you spend it, have a wonderful weekend.
Top stories today
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Labour misconduct claims | A shadow minister has been reported to the Metropolitan Police over allegations from a female MP that he sexually assaulted her. Female MPs share their anger over the way allegations have been handled. This was first reported in the Tortoise by Catherine Neilan.
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Vetting backlog | Public accounts committee urges the cabinet office to “get a grip” on clearance for officials accessing top secret files and warns that the backlog could pose a threat to national security.
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Right place, wrong crowd | The I’s Steve Robson reports that royal superfan Alice Chambers was mistakenly arrested alongside Just Stop Oil protesters at the coronation and held for 13 hours.