Last year marked a tipping point for the world’s power sector with rapidly expanding clean energy sources set to leave the use of fossil fuels in decline from as early as this year, according to new research.

Ember’s Global Electricity Review 2023 suggests that clean sources of energy, which include hydro, nuclear and bioenergy as well as wind and solar, now account for nearly 40 per cent of the world’s electricity supply.

Emissions from the power sector continued to rise in 2022 due to increased demand for electricity, the report says. For example, China’s overall demand increased by 374 terawatt hours, well ahead of its increase in wind capacity of 168TWh, which itself accounted for more than half the increase in global capacity.

However, Ember says that wind and solar output, which has increased annually by 15 to 20 per cent over the past decade, could cover the global increase in annual electricity demand this year, creating the conditions for a decline in fossil fuel usage and overall emissions from the sector.

Countries that increased clean power capacity significantly in 2022 included China, which accounted for about 20 per cent of all solar panels installed worldwide.

The Ember report follows an International Energy Agency analysis last month that concluded nuclear and renewables were on track to meet almost all of the growth in global electricity demand.

Despite the arrival of the tipping point, significant further change is needed to the way the world generates its electricity — a key milestone in the IEA’s net zero emissions scenario is for a net zero power sector by 2040, a full decade ahead of a net zero global economy by 2050.

Alan Smith

Our other charts of the week . . . 

US imports of goods and services from China reached a new high of $564bn in 2022, despite efforts to decouple trade, according to an analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Tariffs introduced during the Donald Trump presidency have significantly reduced the trade in goods such as semiconductors and consumer electronics.

Imports from China subject to 25 per cent US tariff were almost a quarter lower in 2022 than before the start of the trade war, while those subject to the 7.5 per cent tariff were down nearly a tenth.

Non-tariff items such as video game consoles, smartphones and laptops — which experienced a surge in demand during the Covid-19 pandemic — have boosted the value of US imports from China.

Amy Borrett

March’s better than expected inflation rate of 5 per cent, the lowest since 2021, will be welcomed by US consumers who have been tackling rising prices by cutting back on discretionary spending.

Data compiled by pollsters at Morning Consult suggests that Americans have been prioritising staying online. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they had not cut back their spending on internet and mobile phone services, compared with a quarter who had. Consumers were also less likely to have cut back on services such as music and video streaming, satellite and cable TV.

By contrast, 31 per cent of adults said they had cut their spending on cinema tickets compared with 25 per cent who said they had not, a net difference of 6 percentage points. The sports sector was similarly affected, with spending on betting and tickets to events also more likely to see reduced outlay from consumers.

Alan Smith

Food inflation remains highest in low- and middle-income countries according to an April update from the World Bank. Lebanon’s 261 per cent is nearly double the next highest rate (Zimbabwe, 137 per cent), with Argentina completing a trio of countries where the food component of the consumer price index exceeds 100 per cent.

The update also provides data on “real food inflation”, or the rate at which food inflation is outpacing overall inflation: food prices are rising faster than prices overall in 91 per cent of the 162 countries for which figures are available.

While Lebanon and Zimbabwe also top this list, three EU countries make the top 10, with Hungary sixth, Germany ninth and Portugal tenth.

Looking ahead, the World Bank cites the importance of the Black Sea grain initiative to a global recovery from food price shocks. The deal was renewed for 60 days on March 18, but earlier this month Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov threatened to scrap it unless restrictions on Russia’s agricultural exports were eased.

Alan Smith

An analysis of recent polls among voters in Northern Ireland has concluded that there is “no significant trend, up or down, in support for Irish unity”.

The analysis, carried out by FactCheckNI, an independent fact-checking organisation, was prompted by comments made last month by Democratic Unionist party leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson at the National Press Club in Washington, where he claimed that “every major poll points in the opposite direction [from reunification]”.

The most recent polling in the analysis, carried out for the Irish Times and Arins (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South) in December 2022, puts support for remaining in the UK at 50 per cent, 23 percentage points ahead of support for Irish unification, with nearly a quarter of voters undecided.

A mirror poll south of the border in Ireland puts support for reunification at 66 per cent, 50 percentage points ahead of support for Northern Ireland remaining in the UK.

Alan Smith

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