Good morning. Famous last words, but . . . are we reaching the end of the beginning in the Northern Ireland Protocol stand-off? Our correspondent in Belfast parses this week’s flurry of diplomacy. And I bring you up to speed with the adventures of Andrej Babiš, the former Czech premier who began the week awaiting a fraud verdict, and ends it as favourite to become president.

The P word

Is the Northern Ireland protocol endgame finally edging into sight? UK and Irish political leaders converged on Belfast this week to rally local parties as London and Brussels intensify their push for a deal on post-Brexit trading arrangements for the region, writes Jude Webber.

Context: the ongoing argument between London, Dublin, Belfast and Brussels over the future of the protocol is the biggest irritant to normalising post-Brexit relations between the UK and EU countries, and for almost three years has restricted beneficial co-operation in a host of other areas.

No one is holding their breath but this week’s progress on data-sharing — the first tangible breakthrough in months of bitter acrimony — has raised spirits to the extent that even UK opposition leader Keir Starmer flew to Belfast to offer the government “political cover” to deliver a deal soon.

How soon is soon remains to be seen. Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s taoiseach, said negotiators were not yet “in the proverbial tunnel” — the jargon for the intense nose-to-the-grindstone period of final talks on substantive issues.

Next week will only intensify the pressure: Officials from London and Brussels meet on Monday and three days later British-Irish talks will be held in Dublin.

James Cleverly, UK foreign minister, still sees big gaps; although the understatement of the week goes to his Irish counterpart Micheál Martin, who said “it’s very challenging, particularly as you get into the weeds”.

No one will bet on a deal by April 10 — the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement that ended Northern Ireland’s three decades-long conflict, the Troubles. And securing any agreement that the Democratic Unionist party, the region’s biggest pro-UK force, can swallow may prove harder.

DUP leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, who has vetoed the region’s political institutions since May to demand sweeping changes to the protocol, says he does not want to swap one “flawed agreement” for another.

But things have not felt this hopeful in ages. After being snubbed by Cleverly this week, Mary Lou McDonald, leader of pro-Irish unity party Sinn Féin, said a deal was “not rocket science”. It finally feels like the countdown may be about to begin.

Chart du jour: Opportunity rocks

Sweden has discovered Europe’s largest deposit of rare earth metals – a 1mn tonne hoard in the Arctic — in a boost to Europe’s hopes of reducing reliance on China for the magic minerals that power green technologies. 

Babiš 2.0?

At times it seemed like Czech billionaire politician Andrej Babiš spent more time in court than on the election trail these past few months, but he may somehow still engineer a return to power in the presidential poll that opens today.

Context: The food-to-media tycoon (net worth $4bn) was prime minister for four years before being turfed out of office in December 2021. He was put on trial this autumn on charges he allegedly defrauded the EU.

Babiš was acquitted of those charges earlier this week, turning an event that could have derailed his campaign into a potential vote booster. He is the bookmakers’ favourite in an eight-person race that will almost certainly go to a run-off later this month.

(When I interviewed Babiš in 2016 he ranted for most of the lunch about immigration and claimed people were out to assassinate him. For what it’s worth, he also said he would never want to be president.)

But his potential victory is unlikely to be cheered by the majority of his old colleagues on the European Council, given his populist outbursts and the awkwardness of sharing a summit table with an EU leader who was improperly pocketing EU funds.

Many will also recall summit debates on energy in late 2021 dragging on long past the point of usefulness as Babiš raged against vague, shady forces destabilising the gas market.

However, he has at least public support from his Renew party colleague Emmanuel Macron, who hosted Babiš in the Élysée on Tuesday in an unashamedly well-timed visit that was met by howls of complaint from the Czech’s political opponents.

“I am glad that the most important European politician found time for me and we have such friendly relations,” Babiš wrote on Twitter, adding a photo of the two men embracing (though Macron looks more like a tailor sizing up a client than someone who fancies a hug.)

What to watch today

1. Voting begins in the Czech Republic’s presidential election.

2. German chancellor Olaf Scholz hosts Iraqi prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani in Berlin.

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• Greenwashing: Half of the environmental claims used to advertise products in the EU are “vague, misleading or unfounded.”

• Balkan crisis: Washington is increasing diplomatic pressure on both Serbia and Kosovo to avoid “metastasising violence”, a senior US official told the FT.